Heat-related hospital costs in Switzerland could more than double by the 2060s

Even under the most optimistic climate scenario, heat-related hospital costs in Switzerland are projected to increase substantially by the 2060s, driven mainly by population ageing and further amplified by rising temperatures.

• This study examines the quantification of the financial burden of heat-related hospital admissions in Switzerland in the context of climate change and presents a scalable analytical framework.
• Authors: Ario Saeid Vaghefi, Iris Bucher, Chiara Colesanti Senni, Veruska Muccione,Martina S. Ragettli, Abbas Mirmashhouri, Christian Huggel, and Markus Leippold

A recent study estimates that heat-related hospital admissions already cost six major Swiss cantons CHF 20.6 million a year. An ageing population and rising temperatures could substantially increase this burden.

Hot days are associated with more hospital admissions in Switzerland, particularly among people aged 75 and over and children. Looking ahead to the 2060s, the study projects that direct hospital-treatment costs attributable to heat could reach around CHF 52 million annually in the six cantons examined under a high-emissions scenario.

Researchers from the University of Zurich and partner institutions examined a less visible consequence of climate change: not heat-related deaths, but the cost of treating illnesses that lead to hospital admission during hot weather. This matters for health systems, insurers and public authorities planning for more frequent heat events.

The team linked daily hospital-admission records from 1998 to 2022 with temperature data for Bern, Basel-Stadt, Geneva, Ticino, Vaud and Zurich. These 6 cantons account for about 60 percent of Swiss hospital admissions. They estimated direct inpatient costs using the SwissDRG (Swiss Diagnosis Related Groups) reimbursement system and combined the historical patterns with Swiss climate and population projections.

1. Heat already carries a material hospital-cost burden. From 2013 to 2022, heat-attributable admissions cost the six cantons an average CHF 20.6 million per year. Zurich had the highest annual total, at CHF 4.7 million. These figures cover direct inpatient treatment only, so they do not include costs such as outpatient care, lost productivity or informal care.
2. Risks are not shared equally. Extreme heat was most strongly associated with admissions for endocrine and metabolic conditions, for which the estimated risk was about twice as high as on a typical warm-season day. Older adults and children showed the greatest overall vulnerability.
3. Population ageing drives much of the projected increase. Under a high-emissions pathway, heat-attributable treatment costs are projected to rise by 150 percent by the 2060s relative to 2013–2022. Costs for people aged 75 and over could become 4.6 times as high. Even under a low-emissions scenario, costs for this age group rise substantially because the population is ageing.

Fig. 2 Schematic overview of the scalable analytical framework. The framework consists of five modular components: (1) climate data input, (2) exposure definition, (3) epidemiological modeling using DLNM, (4) cost estimation, and (5) future projections combining climate and demographic scenarios. Dark-shaded boxes indicate core methodology transferable across contexts; light-shaded boxes indicate context-specific inputs requiring local data. Examples of alternative data sources for different settings (e.g., LMIC applications using WHO-CHOICE costs and CORDEX projections) are shown beneath each module

The projections assume that people’s vulnerability to heat remains unchanged. Measures such as heat-health warning systems, urban cooling and targeted protection for vulnerable groups could reduce the burden. But the findings show that emissions reductions alone will not remove the need for adaptation, especially as Switzerland’s population grows older.

The study offers a framework for translating climate-related health risks into financial planning evidence. For Switzerland, it highlights that protecting people from heat is also a question of safeguarding the long-term capacity of the healthcare system.

More Information​:

• Vaghefi, A.S., Bucher, I., Senni, C.C. et al. Quantifying the financial burden of heat-related hospital admissions in Switzerland under a changing climate: A scalable analytical framework. BMC Glob. Public Health 4, 52 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1186/s44263-026-00275-w
• Photo source: Getty Images via Unsplash